I'm Beginning To Think He Has A Chance

[poliphilo]

We get bored so easily. We may think we crave an easy life- roses round the cottage door and all that- but we don't really. We're the species that set out from the Rift Valley- however many millions years ago it was- and kept on going and kept on going, always hungry to see what lay over the next rise- and if we came to a river we invented boats and if we came to a sea we invented bigger boats- until in the end there wasn't a place on the planet we hadn't settled. We crave the new, we crave adventure- and there's never been a war that most of us didn't gladly plunge into- shouting whatever battle cry came most readily to hand.

And so millions of us are voting for the likes of Donald Trump. It's not the sensible thing to do, not the safe thing, but it's exciting. The man may be ridiculous- and palpably nasty- but at least he's not dull.

Trump's followers may think of themselves as conservatives, but they're not. The human race isn't wired for conservatism, it's wired to take risks- and that's what these conservatives are doing. They're backing the loose cannon, the unsafe pair of hands, the man who seems to love to make enemies. Even though they'd be unlikely to acknowledge it, what they're asking for is trouble.

Comments

[kamomil.livejournal.com]

I heard something that gives me some hope. Polls apparently are done with people who have land lines - phones at home. These tend to be old people, nowadays. I hope that the young people show up on election day and vote someone else in.

Canadians voted Trudeau in - that was kind of a surprise.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Yes, the polls got the last British General Election hopelessly wrong. So much so that one wonders why we should continue to pay them any mind.

[kamomil.livejournal.com]

The only poll that matters is the one on election day.

[basefinder.livejournal.com]

That's a fascinating point about polls using land lines. I had not thought of that, but you are right it will make a difference.

[qatsi.livejournal.com]

I don't know about the US, but in the UK you are far more likely to vote the older you are.

[basefinder.livejournal.com]

That's a good point. I've read that while older people do vote more than younger people, the disparity seems to be lessening; the past couple of presidential elections have seen increases in younger voters.

I'm sure we'll see more written about this in the coming months.

[artkouros.livejournal.com]

The last poll I checked into used a mix of land lines and cell phones - just because of the age skew.

[kamomil.livejournal.com]

Okay, so they are trying to allow for cell phone only households.

[puddleshark.livejournal.com]

There was an interesting editorial in the Guardian last week analysing Trump's appeal as "the politics of rage". People are angry and they'll vote for anyone who openly expresses rage, no matter that what he's saying makes no sense, or that his policies will not promote their interests...

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Rage? Perhaps. I think it's just that he's different. Corbyn is different too (and completely unlike Trump). All across the Western world we want a change from politics as usual- and anyone who can tap into that yearning has a chance.

[veronica-milvus.livejournal.com]

Only 16% of UK population like Corbyn. Don't get carried away.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

I suspect that Trump commands similar figures in the nation as a whole. It remains a fact (I think) that Corbyn has brought large numbers of people into the Labour Party. His problem is he's too quiet. If he were a bit more dynamic, if he were able to smack Cameron about a bit, I reckon he'd have the next election in the bag.

[basefinder.livejournal.com]

I think rage is a big factor over here. Many of our older white racist demographic are still horribly angry that we have a black president. A candidate that openly appeals to bigotry appeals to a lot of them, and candidates or parties that welcome diversity scare the crap out of them.

The theme of this year's elections seems to be fear.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

But the white racist demographic is shrinking, right?

That, at least, is what I'm reading- and the conclusion has to be that no candidate who offers bigotry- and nothing else- is going to win a national election.

[basefinder.livejournal.com]

Yes indeed, thank goodness, but they are a very loud minority and concentrated in the republican party. I agree with your conclusion and hope it is correct. Something I have noticed is that angry people tend to be drawn toward other angry people, even if they don't know what the other is really angry about. Very strange. But if you watch clips of Trump's or Cruz's speeches (not something I recommend LOL) you can watch them work the crowd, not to educate on the issues but rather to churn up fear and anger.

Many articles have stated the view that Trump as the republican nominee would hand the election to the democrats. Yet, many also worry that Clinton's reputation for deceit and being above the rules might make it a tough contest if they are the two who face off in the general election.

It's a scary year in the U.S.A. The elections already dominate our news coverage, to the detriment of anything else important, and the intensive TV commercials haven't even started yet. There will come a time in a few months when I won't be able to tolerate watching TV live--I'll have to record my shows so I can fast forward through the attack ads.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Clinton represents the old politics. She has form. And loads of baggage. She may be the "sensible" choice- but that's part of her problem. Voters don't get fired up about sensible choices.

[lblanchard.livejournal.com]

Actually a whole lot of us older white people are tired of the smartypants political class that smacks us around and takes us for granted. That said, I'm not interested in the smartypants "businessman" who has probably also bought and paid for Hillary as insurance, either.

[basefinder.livejournal.com]

Yes. I'm tired of the two established parties pointing fingers at each other while they both do us over.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

I'm an older white person myself- and similarly sick of the political class. This isn't just a US phenomenon. It's the way things are across the Western world.

[veronica-milvus.livejournal.com]

A good insight.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Thanks.

[solar-diablo.livejournal.com]

I have to agree with some of the others here re: the rage factor. While the white racist demographic may or may not be shrinking in America, Trump's primary appeal among those conservative voters supporting him is anger over what they feel has been a near constant, systematic betrayal at the hands of the Republican Party that pledged to them over and over again they would "adhere to conservative principles", "repeal Obamacare", and "refuse to compromise" with Democrats. When these politicians failed to live up to these promises or worse, appeared no better than Democrats, it allowed for the possibility for something like the Trump candidacy. He says everything they want to hear about reducing the size of the government, deporting immigrants and building a US-Mexico border wall, halting all Muslim immigration "until we can figure out what's going on", rudely disregarding "political correctness" and multiculturalism in a way they wish they had the courage to do, and disrupting the DC establishment.

When you point out to them that Trump has a history of shifting positions to suit the voters he's courting, or is as much a part of the establishment they want to see burn, they either deny or don't care. These people want revenge on a system they feel has exploited them, and if an ideologically imperfect delivery system like Trump has to be risked to lower the boom, so be it.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Dangerous times.

People want to smash the existing system- and they're not thinking too clearly about the thing they'll be putting in its place.

[itsmysoulmate.livejournal.com]

Wow!

[lblanchard.livejournal.com]

Not happy with any of the potential candidates from either party. I will vote libertarian in the next election. As long as I'm throwing my vote away I may as well make a statement.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

I've thrown my vote away on numerous occasions. I once voted for something called The Pirate Party.

[artkouros.livejournal.com]

I'm willing to give you East Florida back if you'll take Trump.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

No deal.

You may have seen that someone got up a petition to have Trump banned from entering the UK- and it received so many signatures that the law required it to be debated in parliament.

He's not loved over here. It rankles that he built one of his horrible golf courses over a site of special scientific interest on the East Coast of Scotland.