The Right Thing

[poliphilo]

I believe it was the right thing to do to challenge Gaddafi.

When a murderous bully is gaining the upper hand- and you're bigger than he is and have a fair chance of stopping him, it's wrong to sit on your hands.

This intervention was possible. And the calculations suggest a fair outcome is likelier than a miserable one. 

I have, in the past, called myself a pacifist. Obviously this was a lie.

Comments

[michaleen.livejournal.com]

There is a provisional government already in place in Benghazi, one that was given official diplomatic recognition by France, just a few days ago. They have been begging for a no-fly zone from day one.

I freely admit that seeing poor mad Tony and Hillary Clinton and Mean Old Man McCain and the rest of the usual suspects baying for blood should give anyone pause. I still think this is the right course to take, though. The clincher was the Arab League. A more dysfunctional deliberative body it is difficult to imagine, yet they got their act together, in record time, and presented a case for intervention to the Security Council. I was shocked.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

But can the provisional government in Benghazi claim to represent the whole country?

[michaleen.livejournal.com]

That is the proverbial $10,000 question, I fear.

I strongly suspect that the provisional government in Benghazi speaks for the oil-producing East and hopes to speak for the refineries and ports of the coast. That much is certain.

I think the provisional government probably speaks for at least 80% of Libya, reckoned by land mass, since that is about what the rebels held, before Gaddafi's kids tried to re-take the coastal towns from Sirt to Benghazi. What that translates to, in number of heads, I have no idea. I suspect that it still means that the provisional government enjoys majority support, at least for now.

How much hard support Gaddafi has among the populace is difficult to say. I suspect that he's down to a fanatical few, at this point. It is likely that at least some of his officer corp will happily throw the family under the bus, when the opportunity to do so arrives. Strongmen rule through fear and largess. Gaddafi's power to use either has been severely downgraded. We shall just have to see.