The EBBUUNT
Jun. 23rd, 2004 09:51 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
poliphiloJonathan Freedland in the Guardian says that the Bushes and the Clintons are turning into dynasties. Look forward to Jeb Bush v Hilary Clinton in 2008, and George P Bush v Chelsea Clinton somewhere further down the line.
I don't think so. Political prophecy always ignores (because it has to) the EBBUUNT- (the Enormously Big But Utterly Unpredictable New Thing). Just because there are no very exciting alternatives around at the moment doesn't mean there never will be. Freedland's prophecy depends on no new talent or force emerging in American politics for the next twenty or thirty years. It also depends on there being no paradigm changing catastrophes, cataclysms or happy accidents.
I can remember when the Kennedys were seen as a dynasty that would last forever. There would be three President Kennedys- one after the other. Why, Nostradamus himself predicted it. And then the next generation would start kicking in.
Hasn't exactly worked out that way, now has it?
I don't think so. Political prophecy always ignores (because it has to) the EBBUUNT- (the Enormously Big But Utterly Unpredictable New Thing). Just because there are no very exciting alternatives around at the moment doesn't mean there never will be. Freedland's prophecy depends on no new talent or force emerging in American politics for the next twenty or thirty years. It also depends on there being no paradigm changing catastrophes, cataclysms or happy accidents.
I can remember when the Kennedys were seen as a dynasty that would last forever. There would be three President Kennedys- one after the other. Why, Nostradamus himself predicted it. And then the next generation would start kicking in.
Hasn't exactly worked out that way, now has it?
