Historical Footnotes

[poliphilo]

1. Just a side issue, really but the pollsters called it wrong on Brexit and now they've called it wrong on the US elections. That's a pretty impressive record of failure.

2. Ailz tells me The Scotsman led with the story, "Aberdeen Business Owner Wins Presidential Election."

Comments

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Yes it was close- but it's in close elections that the work of pollsters comes into its own- and if they can't get it right there's no point. On the other hand If everybody knows there's going to be a landslide who needs a pollster?

[heleninwales.livejournal.com]

This is true! Though it all comes down to sampling, degrees of accuracy and statistics. So really the only message you should take from a close poll is that it's close and could go either way!

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Exactly.

By the time the campaign ended I had a gut feeling that Trump was going to win. Turns out my gut was more reliable that the pollsters.