Historical Footnotes

[poliphilo]

1. Just a side issue, really but the pollsters called it wrong on Brexit and now they've called it wrong on the US elections. That's a pretty impressive record of failure.

2. Ailz tells me The Scotsman led with the story, "Aberdeen Business Owner Wins Presidential Election."

Comments

[dadi.livejournal.com]

That is apparently a thing with elections where populists are running in a prominent position or with a high visibility concern. Italy at Berlusconi time was the same.. the polls always said no way he'd win and then he did. People vote populist in the secrecy of the voting cabin, they often are afraid/ashamed to own up to it when asked by, even anonymous, interviewers.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

The pollsters either need to factor in the "I'm ashamed to be voting for this guy" factor or else shut up shop.

Especially since populism seems to the order of the day. After Brexit and Trump I'm fully expecting Le Pen to win in France...

[xiphias.livejournal.com]

Nate Silver fudged that in and came up with a 1/3 chance that Trump would win, and 2/3 that Clinton would. Everybody else mocked him for it.