A Long Cold Winter...

[poliphilo]

There was a report in the paper a few days back that the arctic swans have flown in from Siberia and this means it's going to be an extra long winter.

Bloody swans!

I don't know exactly what the temperature is today but I'm wearing fingerless gloves and thinking I may need to add a body warmer to the ensemble.

Tell you what would be nice: a roaring fire of applewood- like they have in this book I'm reading- the first of the Merrily Watkins series. And how about something hot to drink- not tea or coffee but something in a bowl with a roasted crab(apple) floating in it?

If it weren't only October I'd be thinking of putting the seasonal protections up- by which I mean the Christmas decorations. 

Comments

[halfmoon-mollie.livejournal.com]

We are getting conflicting forecasts. The Farmer's Almanac says we are going to have another winter like last year. No thank you. The weather people say that because of El Nino, we're going to have a milder winter with less snow and ice than usual. Yes please.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

I've come to the conclusion that the forecasters- for all their science- are really just guessing.

[halfmoon-mollie.livejournal.com]

Yeah. I've always said the best way to tell what the weather is going to be for the winter is to wait until it's over.

[porsupah.livejournal.com]

It's really all a matter of probabilities. If you look at the raw forecast charts, and assemble them together, you'll see just what you might expect, often diverging in subtle ways, from the current situation.

The UK, of course, is exceptionally problematic to forecast well, given we're in the intersection of several major influences - systems drifting over the Atlantic, Arctic air via Scandinavia, and warmer Mediterranean influences, which not infrequently meet right over the UK, making for Britain's trademark "if you don't like it now, just wait half an hour" weather.

Conversely, it's very boring for forecasters in California and Oregon, where it's basically just the same influences all the time.

(I keep a particularly close eye on forecasts from MeteoGroup and the BBC/Met Office, with a particular eye on visible satellite and rainfall radar, to judge whether it'll be worth going out rabiteering toward late afternoon. It's so frustrating to repeatedly encounter these days where there's plenty of sun earlier on in the day, only to have the land fill up the cloud masses later on, for a tight sprinkling of sun, cloud, and light rain in the two hours before sunset)