Back To the '80s

[poliphilo]

There's a civil war in progress in Ukraine. Rebels have declared independence in the east of the country and the Government (which came to power in a coup ) sends bombers and other military planes over. The rebels- not unreasonably- try to shoot these planes down. Unbelievably commercial airlines kept on flying through the contested air space until the rebels- who have considerable fire power but limited expertise (theyr'e banditti, feedom fighters, terrorists and not properly trained soldiers)- hit one with a missile.

And somehow it's all Mr Putin's fault.

Russia may have supplied the rebels with the missiles, but every country with an arms industry supplies weaponry to its clients, friends and business partners. Britain supplies all sorts of foul dictatorships- including Russia. It's not unfeasible that the missile that downed the Malaysian plane contained British components.

O, 'tis war, 'tis war, 'tis war
That makes the world go round.

No-one wanted a civilian airliner to be shot down. The Russians certainly didn't. No-one gains except the Western nations who can use it as an excuse to parade their virtues. It's clear it was an accident- one of those stupid, horrible things that happen in war. No-one is to blame and everyone is to blame.

So why are the EU and the Americans pushing the Russians so hard on this one? Putin isn't a nice man but he's arguably as nice a ruler as Russia is going to throw up at this stage of her woeful history. Peaceful coexistence is entirely possible- and mutually profitable. The only reason I can think is nostalgia for the Cold War.  Defying the Russians allowed several generations of Western leaders to sound off heroically to their electorates- and today's leaders would dearly love to do the same.  The Cold War is their comfort zone and they're only too happy to snuggle back into it.

Comments

[halfmoon-mollie.livejournal.com]

Yes. this. Most sensible thing I've seen about this 'conflict' yet.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Thank you.

[ideealisme.livejournal.com]

While I agree that Putin is not directly responsible for the downing of MH17, the entire Ukraine invasion has been carefully fomented and planned under his watch, using unmarked gunmen and Russian separatists to camouflage his intentions. But the high dependence on Russian gas for energy needs has prevented the EU countries from speaking out earlier. Now they feel enabled, perhaps.

[arielstarshadow.livejournal.com]

Exactly.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Russia and the West are using Ukraine as a kind of proxy arm-wrestling match. The EU wants to encroach as far as it can on what has historically been seen as the Russian sphere of influence and Russia wants to keep it at bay. As far as I can make out the western part of the country would like to join the EU and the eastern part would like to remain Russian. I think Putin has as much right to fortify the Easst as the EU has to stir things up in the West.

[arielstarshadow.livejournal.com]

Well, not exactly. The rebels aren't actually declaring independence per se - because their real intention is to go back to Russia (much like the Crimea did). That is why Putin is getting "blamed" - because the likelihood is very high that he is encouraging and supporting the rebels so that he can swallow up these "independent add more territory back to Russia.

[ingenious76.livejournal.com]

Yes.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

But if the eastern part of Ukraine wants to Russian- and I believe it does- it would be very odd if Putin wasn't offering encouragement.

[arielstarshadow.livejournal.com]

The issue is that we can't tell how many of the rebels are actually Ukrainians, and how many of them are actually Russians who came across the border to incite rebellion. We already know that happened in the Crimea - that we had Russians pretending to be Ukrainians.

Either way, Russia is engaging in actions that go directly against the autonomy and sovereignty of another nation (not just by encouragement, but by supplying weapons and armaments and, by many accounts, sending actual troops into the Ukraine). If we don't condone it when other countries do such things (such as the US and the UK), then we can't condone it when Russia does it, either.

[ingenious76.livejournal.com]

I disagree that its nostalgia for the Cold War. Russia is no longer the USSR, and the Warsaw Pact no longer exists. Germany is no longer divided. If superpowers still exist, they are in the East, not the West. What made the Cold War terrifying were two super armies eyeing each other. Especially as the Iron Curtain spread as far as Western Europe, swallowing East Germany. The Iron curtain has collapsed, and quite a few of the former Warsaw Pact countries are now in NATO. So how on earth can you claim its Cold War nostalgia where the rules of international politics are now completely different?

Putin has created a conflict he can no longer control, that is evident. European powers have been muted because of their dependence on Russian gas/energy. But MH17 has been an international tragedy and given them leverage to come down hard on Putin.

Oh, and I really fail to see how the prospect of global nuclear annihilation - which was a terrifying possibility under the Presidency of Reagan in the early 80s with his spoutings of "Evil Empire" (and the fact the Russians genuinely thought he was mad) - is a comfort zone.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

The nostalgia is for the simplicities of the Cold War era- the them and us mentality.

I don't believe the conflict in the Ukraine is of Russia's making- or at least not soley of Russia's making. The EU wants to encroach on what used to be the Russian sphere of influence and Russia is pushing back.

The Cold War isn't a comfort zone for us- the citizenry- but I think politicians rather like the opportunity to pose in the cast-off clothes of their larger than life predecessors- Thatcher and Reagan in particular.

[ingenious76.livejournal.com]

I would argue that the "us and them" mentality is currently seen in the War on Terror.

There was nothing simple about the politics of the Cold War. You can see that in the troubles that seethe in the Middle East.

If the conflict in the Ukraine is not solely of Putin's making, he had a very large hand in it.

And your comment about the EU encroaching on the Russian sphere of influence - its more a case of former Soviet Bloc countries wanting to join the EU.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

I agree about the War on Terror- so called.

The war in the Ukraine is a civil war- which is being meddled in and exploited by Russia and the EU. It originates with the people of the Ukraine themselves- some of whom want to go East and some of whom want to go West.

[ingenious76.livejournal.com]

Yes, I am aware of that. I do know that the Crimean Tartars - the indigenous population - have always considered themselves Russian.

[artkouros.livejournal.com]

No one likes a middle aged tyrant who walks around shirtless.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Personally I don't like any current world leader.

[artkouros.livejournal.com]

You're undermining the oligarchy!!