Gazing Into The Crystal Ball

[poliphilo]

We still don't have a government. Or, at least, we do- sort of- but it's the old one. I don't suppose Gordon Brown is doing much governing at the moment, but his chancellor was in conference with other European money men over the weekend, agreeing a rescue package for the Euro and committing £15 billion we don't have to the kitty.

Meanwhile, Nick Clegg has a choice of alliances- neither of which is likely to hold together long. A Lib-Con coalition will be undone by ideological differences and grass-roots distaste, and a Lib-Lab one by the fragility of its majority.  The electorate has expressed its deep-seated distaste for all the parties by condemning them to a season of anxiety and impotence.

I don't have any reputation to lose so I'm going to be reckless and prophesy a second election before the year's end, and- going even further out- that David Milliband will be Prime Minister by Christmas.

Comments

[veronica-milvus.livejournal.com]

It certainly won't be easy for the Tories and LibDems to agree - and keep on agreeing - on anything. I hope they can. If they can't and we do end up in another general election, I don't see why most of us would change our vote between now and then, so would we not just end up in a similar situation to where we are now? Unless of course, natural Labour voters who are disaffected with Brown all return to voting Labour because they like Miliband.

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

This is the future as I forsee it.

The Lib-Con government will be shambolic- torn apart by internal dissent and heavily clobbered by events beyond its control. The British electorate has no real liking for Cameron- and they will like him a lot less when they've suffered for a few months under his leadership.

Meanwhile Gordon Brown- the prime architect of Labour's defeat- will have stepped down, allowing the party to renew itself under Milliband.

Towards the end of the year a failing Cameron government will call an election and Milliband's resurgent Labour party will sweep to power.

[steepholm.livejournal.com]

But... will it be Milliband for sure? Is he a popular figure, except amongst Blairites? I'd put a side bet on Alan Johnson. (Call me an inverted snob, but I'd quite like at least one of the party leaders to have a) had a job outside politics and/or b) not been educated at a top public school.)

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

Johnson is a possibility, but he's said on several occasions that he doesn't want the job. Another is Ed Balls. He'd be Brown's choice, but I gather he's not much liked outside the Downing Street bunker.

[veronica-milvus.livejournal.com]

You know who I liked? That Alan Milburn bloke who went off to spend more time with his family. What happened to him?

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

He stood down at last week's election- and is no longer an MP.

I've always wondered what the real story was....

[michaleen.livejournal.com]

Amazing.

Is there a feeling of anxiety on the street, would you say?

[poliphilo.livejournal.com]

I don't think so. The money markets may be jittery, but most people are just getting on with their lives.

As a bit of a political nerd, I find it all very interesting- exciting even- but I'm not anxious.

[michaleen.livejournal.com]

I think it's very exciting, even from a distance.

Money markets are always jittery. Seems like the wealthy are often insecure to the point of paranoia and market churn reflects that.