poliphilo: (Default)
poliphilo ([personal profile] poliphilo) wrote2010-04-29 10:22 am

Gordon Brown- The Final Days

Gordon Brown looks defeated. He's grey, he slumps. Even though there's little physical resemblance- beyond the jowliness- he reminds me of Richard Nixon in the final phase. When he's not slumping, he's floating around with that terrible, unreal grin on his face. I don't know which is worse- Gordon as Nixon or Gordon the bob-bob-bobbing balloon.
 
The incident with the woman in Rochdale didn't have to be as bad as it was. A quick apology- yes I'm a grouchy old bear, so sue me- might have got him off the hook. He didn't have to go to her house and stay there for three quarters of an hour while the world's media filmed the front door. First he was snarly, then he was abject. At no point did he look like a man who might be entrusted with the running of a country.

There had been complaints that Gordon wasn't getting out and pressing enough flesh. They should have been resisted. He doesn't have people skills- and a disaster like this was always on the cards.  In one of the TV debates- knowing he'd never match Cameron and Clegg for charm- he insisted that an election wasn't a beauty contest. If only he and his aides had stuck to that line. Is the British electorate really so infantile it can't see beyond the mask?  The outstanding British prime minister of the past fifty years- Mrs Thatcher- was arrogant, humourless, charmless, altogether unlovely- and it didn't matter.  What she had was strength of purpose. Gordon could  have been marketed on his strength of purpose too. He's rude, he's awkward, you wouldn't want to ask him round for tea, but he understands the economy and he gets things done. Ah well, it's too late now. And maybe the marketing of him as a strong man would also have been a lie.

ext_550458: (C J Cregg)

[identity profile] strange-complex.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 09:33 am (UTC)(link)
It'll be fascinating to see how this affects the last leaders' debate tonight. It's not supposed to be on the agenda, which is to focus on the economy rather than immigration per se. But obviously there are enough links between the two issues for the other two leaders to have every excuse to bring it out. If Nick Clegg has any sense, he'll express mild surprise and disappointment, but hold off using the incident to crucify and humiliate. Cameron, though, will I suspect have no such qualms.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 09:53 am (UTC)(link)
I'm looking forward to tonight's debate.

I think the damage has been done- and nothing any opponent can say will make things worse. I don't see how Brown can repair his image at this point.
ext_550458: (Claudius nobody's fool)

[identity profile] strange-complex.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 10:00 am (UTC)(link)
No, indeed - it's very bad timing for him. I am hoping that the disgruntled voters will turn to the LibDems instead, rather than the Tories - but given the specific issue involved, I suspect it is the Tories who will benefit most from this particular gaffe. :-(

[identity profile] steepholm.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 11:01 am (UTC)(link)
I suspect you're right about that, though I'm hoping that there'll be a lot of people turning to the Lib Dems on the grounds that they might now be the only way to keep the Tories out. I think the Lib Dem in Rochdale, at any rate, is now a shoo in.

I'm wondering what would happen if the Tories had the most seats, some way short of a majority, but the LibDems and Labour were prepared to go into coalition. Whom would the queen ask to form a government?

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 11:12 am (UTC)(link)
So many unknowns!

It looks as though Nick Clegg would demand the sacking of Gordon Brown as the price of a Lab-Lib coaltion. So who would be PM? Alan Johnson, perhaps.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 11:09 am (UTC)(link)
Rochdale used to be a Liberal town- in the days of that iconic parliamentarian Cyril Smith. I think there's a good chance they'll swing to Nick Clegg.

I live in a very similar constituency- former northern mill town, impoverished, lots of Asians- and the Tories don't have a prayer.
ext_550458: (Leeds owl)

[identity profile] strange-complex.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 11:13 am (UTC)(link)
That's good news locally (from my point of view, anyway!). I still think it will help the Tories most nationally, though.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 11:22 am (UTC)(link)
Because the issue he stumbled over was immigration? I very much hope you're wrong.
ext_550458: (K-9 affirmative)

[identity profile] strange-complex.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 11:40 am (UTC)(link)
Yes. I think people who identify with the woman he spoke to will now see Labour as dismissive of their concerns, and will see the Tories as the party most likely to support them.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 12:04 pm (UTC)(link)
There's something deeply wrong when the leader of a political party can't relate to an absolutely typical party supporter.

GB has lived in Islington (or wherever it is) for far too long.

[identity profile] burkesworks.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 01:02 pm (UTC)(link)
I very much hope you're wrong.

So do I, but I fear she's right. One word sums up the sudden turn towards knee-jerk, dog-whistle populism - and that word is "Murdoch".

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 01:20 pm (UTC)(link)
You're comforting yourself with the thought thatthe old geezer won't be around much longer and then along comes the next generation- and it's even pushier.

[identity profile] burkesworks.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 12:57 pm (UTC)(link)
Rochdale used to be a Liberal town

Still is. Paul Rowen defeated the appalling Lorna Fitzsimons, another lousy warmongering ex-NUS president like Woolas, in 2005. Technically it's now a "nominally Labour-held" seat owing to boundary changes; it won't be held by them next Friday, nominally or otherwise.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 01:18 pm (UTC)(link)
That's good to know.

[identity profile] jfs.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 10:26 am (UTC)(link)
Clegg's quote thus far, which I'm heartily in favour of, was

"If we all had recordings of what we mutter under our breath we'd all be crimson with embarrassment."
ext_550458: (Silver Jubilee knees-up)

[identity profile] strange-complex.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 10:29 am (UTC)(link)
Oh, that makes me want to hug him with glee! Three hundred thousand cheers for him. :-)

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 11:12 am (UTC)(link)
Exactly. And exactly the right line to take- generosity to a fallen foe.

[identity profile] jfs.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 02:52 pm (UTC)(link)
Strategically, perfectly played - he's re-inforced the 'I'm not like those guys - they just attack each other' message that he got across at the first debate.

Morally - also the right thing to say. Yes, Brown said something stupid. Can we move on now?

[identity profile] ooxc.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 09:44 am (UTC)(link)
I don't disagree with allthe things you've written, but I do disagree with your conclusion -
"At no point did he look like a man who might be entrusted with the running of a country."
How many previous PMs would have met that criterion if they'd been subjected to the same trial by televison, and the modern style of press coverage) as in the past 50 years?
With the hindsight of subsequent knowledge through actions whike PM and other people's reminscences, I can't think of a single one

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 09:59 am (UTC)(link)
That's a good point.

But is Brown really under so much more scrutiny than Mrs Thatcher was- or John Major? I detested Mrs T, but she retained control of her image because- fundamentally- she was a strong person- and she wasn't pretending to be nice. The faults- which were considerable- were on open display- and we still elected her.

[identity profile] ooxc.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 11:01 am (UTC)(link)
I was thinking further back than Thatcher.
However, I still don't think that the analogy holds.
1. I'm fairly sure that she got votes from "flomem who might not have liked her much but wanted to see a woman there (I know for sure that there were Liberals who thought lie

[identity profile] ooxc.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 11:05 am (UTC)(link)
Sorry - not sure what happemed then -
"floaters who might not like her much but wanted to see a wona ther I know for sure that we lost quite a few former Liberals over that

2. i admit that I didn't own a TV then - but i don't remember that the coverage then was so personaly intrusive and vindictive as it has been over the past weeks

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 11:18 am (UTC)(link)
I think one thing that's changed is that the politicians are now much more afraid of the media than they used to be- which has led to an overall blandness and shying away from controversy. I suspect they've got it wholly wrong- and a leader who didn't give a damn about image- and who came across as natural and unspun- would sweep the board.

Look at Italy. Berlusconi is unspeakable, but the people keep voting him in because, whatever else you can say about him, he's colourful- and utterly shameless.

[identity profile] ooxc.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 12:31 pm (UTC)(link)
Are you sure that's why? Mightn't it be that the alternatives might be non-existent or worse?
That's where weare heading

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 01:18 pm (UTC)(link)
My impression is that Italian politicians are a pretty dull lot- apart from Berlusconi.

Mind you, it helps that he owns most of the media.

[identity profile] ooxc.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 02:37 pm (UTC)(link)
Now you tell me? Nothing to do with being colourful, then!

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 06:01 pm (UTC)(link)
It's both.

He's a combination of Rupert Murdoch, Hugh Hefner and Roy Hudd.

[identity profile] jfs.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 02:56 pm (UTC)(link)
There's a story of one of the 'tween-war Prime Ministers - my mind wants to say Chamberlain, but I can't find the actual quote - who was stopped by the press as he came off the plane from some important conference or other.

On being asked "Prime Minister, do you have a comment for the press?" he simply replied "No." and walked onwards.

There are times that I wish one of the current crop had that attitude.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 06:02 pm (UTC)(link)
I've seen that. It was captured on film. I'm almost certain it was Clem Attlee.

[identity profile] ooxc.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 07:39 pm (UTC)(link)
http://www.thetablet.co.uk/user-login.php?redir=article/14577

"presentation ---is a feature that has been imported into British politics since Thatcher realized the importance of voice-coaching and threw away her hats
sovay: (Psholtii: in a bad mood)

[personal profile] sovay 2010-04-29 04:18 pm (UTC)(link)
he insisted that an election wasn't a beauty contest. If only he and his aides had stuck to that line. Is the British electorate really so infantile it can't see beyond the mask?

You're destroying my illusions here. I thought it was only Americans that fell for that particular smoke and mirror.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2010-04-29 06:05 pm (UTC)(link)
I think all democracies are the same.