poliphilo

Well done! KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON! It's plucky determination like yours that made Scott of the Antarctic rightly famous... oh, wait...

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shewhomust.livejournal.com

The pundits are scurrying around the TV studios to assure us that present conditions in no way challenge their theories of global warming. I don't believe them.

Fair enough. But bear in mind a) that global warming has been linked with perturbed weather (more severe hurricanes and more of them, for example) and b) that the planet as a whole growing warmer doesn't mean that every corner of it grows warmer. Britain has quite a warm climate considering how far north we are, and this is in part thanks to the Gulf Stream. If that changes its route (as it has in the past) global warming could leave us colder, not warmer.

It is, in other words, more complicated than TV ususally allows for.

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shewhomust.livejournal.com

Indeed. Did you see this piece in yesterday's Guardian, which says much the same thing?

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I have to admit I'm rather enjoying this.

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I'm strongly inclined to regard the whole global warming thing as a hoax. Evidence is mounting that the Climate Change scientists have been doctoring the evidence....

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My husband (who recently completed a PhD on flooding) is convinced by global warming and he has his own evidence that he has collected himself.

The thing about our recent cold snap is that it's due to the warm current being diverted to Greenland, where they're currently experiencing a much warmer than normal winter. This has happened before in mini warm periods (when the Vikings colonised Greenland, for example). I'm hoping that it flips back before next winter though.

On the other hand, if this climate pattern keeps up, it will be worth investing in cold weather equipment, so next time we'll be better prepared. We've got soft after a long series of warm wet winters. :)

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visit the "Watts up with that" website for a plausible contrary view. If you read Bjorn Lomborg's book "Cool It" (he's a kind of ecomoderate) you will also see evidence that hurricanes are not actually getting more frequent or more severe.

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It is, indeed, more complicated than TV ever manages to portray. Right now Greenland have got our warm Atlantic current! I do hope they give it back soon.

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Of course I know nothing about the science. I am probably incapable of understanding it. I notice, though, that belief in the theory is by no means universal- and there are suggestions the evidence is being cooked.

I believe I'd rather have snow that the warm, wet winter weather of recent years.

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strange-complex.livejournal.com

Wow, thanks for that link - a really great article.

poliphilo - I'm glad your supermarket was better-stocked than mine, and that you managed to get your Christmas pudding!

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I enjoyed that article. Of course I am not battling my way to work but holing up like an Inuit in my house. Haven't tried to drive my car since Tuesday afternoon. I do however have a VPN so I am able to work from home. Meh.

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They were also selling Father Christmas glove puppets at a knock down price :)

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michaleen.livejournal.com

I firmly believe that humans will have the future they deserve and if they, in their infinite wisdom, decide to chuck decades of scientific analysis in favor of the anecdotes of a single cold winter then more power to them.

Someone has to look out for the oil industry.

And the cockroach is an all-around superior design, anyway.

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But what if the scientific analysis is dodgy- as some of us think it is? There are vested interests on both sides of the debate.

Back in the 70s the experts were confidently predicting a new ice age.

Man made climate change has become the principal dogma of a new orthodoxy- with adherents who are witch-burningly intense in their beliefs. Orthodoxies should always be probed, tickled and mocked.

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tf-1.livejournal.com

http://underdogsbiteupwards.blogspot.com/2010/01/fear-witch-for-it-is-you.html

Everyone should read this

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jfs.livejournal.com

The belief in the theory isn't universal, but it is overwhelming among scientists.

Have a look at this:

http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/2009/climate-change-a-consensus-among-scientists/

Information Is Beautiful is one of my favourite websites because the chap who runs it is fantastic at presenting complex data visually.

As for the suggestion that the information is being cooked. There's evidence that some of the pro-climate-change scientists at the Essex Uni data repository deliberately withheld data which weakened the case for climate change. This was, without a doubt, stupid and irresponsible of them, and I wouldn't be unhappy if people were sacked over it.

But there's more than one repository of such data - there's at least 2 in the US, one run by NASA - and there's consensus among all of them that the data shows that humans are affecting the climate catastrophically. And, after the Essex debacle, you can be certain that the other repositories went over things with a fine tooth comb to make sure there was no such skeleton in their closet.

It's also the case that the data that Essex withheld was to do with one particular measure of climate change - not all of them.

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pondhopper.livejournal.com

Congratulations on a successful shopping trip and on finding those bargain Christmas puddings.
:)
I think global warming is misnamed. It should be "global climate change/shift". Yes, there are vested interests on both sides of the coin but there have been very real changes documented without any interest other than pure science.

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Actually, I don't think anyone can deny that the climate has changed and is changing. You only have to look at the fossils in the coal measures and the remains of mammoths etc and to read about ice fairs on the Thames to realise that Britain has had vastly different climates over the ages.

What people are arguing about is whether humans are having an effect, and if so, exactly how much. That's where it all gets problematical.

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My personal theory is that the politicians want the UK to be more self-sufficient in fuel, which makes a lot of sense. We don't want to be reliant on countries like Russia, who could put the price up on a whim and decide to cut us off if we don't pay what they're asking.

However, it's probably not a good idea to say this publicly, so the politicians have grabbed the global warming theory and are playing it up for all it's worth so that they can urge us to be more economical with energy and also to encourage alternative sources, even if, initially, they are more expensive, which means that market forces won't shift production in that direction until it's too late.

Well, I think it's as good a theory as any of the others that are floating around the Internet. :)

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ex-redrain.livejournal.com

I agree with you about it being misnamed. It largely means greater and greater variations in weather, with extremes in heat, cold, and storm systems.

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suemars.livejournal.com

my son was trying to explain to me the global warming thing, which lots of people think is a hoax. i've read that this has happened before, i don't fully understand. but it warms, artic ice melts, then that floods thing and makes it cold again. i don't think they know anything at all. they can't even predict the weather accurately for the next week.

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First of all it is East Anglia not Essex. Secondly they refuse to hand over the data that goes into the model, under the freedom of information act. There are in total four sets of temperature measurements: the UEA / Had CRUt3 set, University of Alabama Huntsville, Goddard Institute of Space Science, and NASA/NOAA. These dont always agree. The UAH guys in particular don't always agree with the others. Thirdly two of the datasets consist of satellite data which is calibrated against the land surface data so is not independent. Fourthly the weather stations used are not consistent; see Watts Up With That for specific critiques. Lastly there is evidence (see Climategate) that some of the data was adjusted, fudged, cherry-picked, blocked, suppressed and otherwise manipulated to fit with the IPCC position and the career-long beliefs of the protagonists.

There may well be global warming going on, the question is, is that man-made, and is cutting carbon emissions the best way to deal with it rather than tackling poverty, water supply, flood defences, directly.

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Good article.

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