poliphilo: (bah)
poliphilo ([personal profile] poliphilo) wrote2015-04-28 10:07 am

Weighing Things Up

This is the Tunbridge Wells constituency. In 2010 the Conservatives took 56% of the vote. It's a safe seat for them and always has been. Opposition is provided by the Lib Dems who took 25% last time round. Labour doesn't have the ghost of a chance.

So my vote isn't going to change anything. It'll be nothing but a protest vote.  And so I think I might as well go with what I really believe- and vote Green. 

(Anonymous) 2015-04-28 11:20 am (UTC)(link)
Labour lost their deposit in my constituency last time round! I'm voting Green, too; the day I start to think about tactics is the day I will accept defeat and not vote at all.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 11:24 am (UTC)(link)
If I were living in a marginal I'd think of voting tactically (I'd do anything, in Nicola Sturgeons phrase "to lock the Tories out") but in this constituency there's no point.

[identity profile] cmcmck.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 12:02 pm (UTC)(link)
Labour stand the best chance here and their previous MP is standing again and he was good unlike the present idle Tory, so...............

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 01:13 pm (UTC)(link)
I wish him well.

[identity profile] lblanchard.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 12:09 pm (UTC)(link)
I'm slowly coming around to thinking that I'm not throwing away my vote by not voting against the eeeeevil Republican (or Democrat) in a presidential election -- whichever one gets in will reward his/her cronies at the expense of the body politic. So I plan to vote for the Libertarian candidate. At least I'll be making a statemente.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 01:16 pm (UTC)(link)
If minority parties get votes it increases their credibilty. Every party has to start somewhere. The British Labour party- now one of the big two- was a small minority party less than 100 years ago.

[identity profile] artkouros.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 12:26 pm (UTC)(link)
Here in good old Texas, with our winner take all electoral college, Texas will go for the Republican, no matter who it is. And my congressional district has been so Gerrymandered that it will elect a Republican representative, no matter who it is. Similarly, other states and districts always vote Democratic.

Single party rule is always bad, and always leads to bad things. Always.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 01:19 pm (UTC)(link)
Elections in the USA and the UK are decided by what happens in a few swing States and marginal constituencies. Those who don't live in these places might as well not bother to turn up.

[identity profile] porsupah.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 09:43 pm (UTC)(link)
Why is there, from what I can see, virtually zero discussion of even attempting to end the wretched FPTP system in the US? I remain quite perplexed.

[identity profile] artkouros.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 11:20 pm (UTC)(link)
Probably because we don't know what FPTP means.

[identity profile] porsupah.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 11:22 pm (UTC)(link)
First past the post, winner takes all. Versus proportional representation, et al.

[identity profile] puddleshark.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 01:03 pm (UTC)(link)
I swore I'd never vote tactically again after seeing the Libdems' participation in the destruction of our welfare state... but I'm having to face up to the fact that I do need to hold my nose and vote Libdem again if I don't want the Tories in here. A vote for the (slightly) lesser weevil.

[identity profile] poliphilo.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 01:20 pm (UTC)(link)
I suppose the Lib Dems might join a coalition of the left this time.

[identity profile] porsupah.livejournal.com 2015-04-28 09:53 pm (UTC)(link)
Green, SNP, and Plaid Cymru? It does seem a bit of a stretch to deem New Labour much more than "centrist" at best, in my book, given their love of abhorrences like zero hours contracts, benefits sanctioning, workfare, tuition fees, universal surveillance, the persistence of the US' War on Drugs, and their pledge to not reverse any of the Conservatives' cuts.

I'm joining you: Green. Sadly, the constituency is about as solidly blue as yours - current idiot's a helicoptered candidate who barely knows the town exists. Amusingly, one of his current planks is improving the NHS, as he experienced the sheer delight of having to be ferried by ambulance for half an hour, thanks to his bloody bunch closing the A&E of the town's hospital.

It'll feel so damned good, though, to be voting positively: for a party I can genuinely get behind.
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[identity profile] heleninwales.livejournal.com 2015-04-29 07:22 am (UTC)(link)
If I remember correctly from the Panorama programme featuring Nate Silver, the American statistician who has an excellent record on forecasting election outcomes, Ladbrookes betting shops were predicting a minority Labour government supported by a coalition of left-wing minority parties, such as the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens.